India is yet to see the peak of coronavirus pandemic. The ICMR study says it will come around mid-November, almost one year after the Covid-19 outbreak is understood to have happened in China first. And, health experts have already started discussing the possible origin of second wave of Covid-19 pandemic.
It emerges from reports of fresh rise in cases in China, and also in the US, according to some experts. In China, the second wave fears have led to panic after the highest spike in Covid-19 cases in two months.
The new epicentre is Beijing, where most of the fresh cases were traced to a meat market, just like Wuhan. The Beijing meat market is however many times bigger in size than Wuhan’s.
Reports say China has rushed to testing people connected to the meat market. Over 75,000 people are reported to have been tested by Monday. The positivity of the samples is not yet known.
In the US, some news reports – like this https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/coronavirus-us-doctor-says-the-second-wave-has-begun.html? – quotes a medicine professor as saying that second wave has begun in the US.
Second wave is not a scientifically defined term for stages of a pandemic. But what has been seen in previous pandemics is that the phase of first occurrence of disease is followed by more such surges just like oceanic waves.
The Spanish Flu of 1918-19 saw three such waves. Fresh wave of a pandemic could be due to lowering of guards by governments and people or due to mutation in the virus.
It is not yet clear in the case of possible second wave of coronavirus as to whether it is caused by a mutant variety or due to non-adherence to safety protocol by people.
Covid-19 thrust a life versus livelihood battle on the world. Countries after countries went for lockdown – to save life — between March and May brining economies to a halt — compromising livelihood.
As the Covid-19 cases started declining, they reopened. With the reopening, many places have seen surge in numbers. Hokkaido island of Japan witnessed a second wave during April after reopening.
India has seen sharp uptick in the number of Covid-19 cases since it relaxed lockdown norms under the pressure from livelihood concerns of the people.
India is still shut to the outside world. This minimizes the chance of a mutant variety entering the country under the current Covid-19 strategy. Even the first wave of coronavirus reached India later than many other countries and is clearly taking longer to peak.
Historically, the second wave of a pandemic has been more lethal. The second wave of the Spanish Flu caused maximum infection and deaths worldwide. Covid-19 is very much similar in nature of infectivity to Spanish Flu.